LAUNCHPADCAPABILITY STUDY / 10

NORTHSTAR FIELD NOTES / BOARD EDITION

Growth has a
cash curve.

A FICTIONAL BUSINESS. A WORKING MODEL.

A membership publication with quarterly field days. Change the plan, follow the cash, and see what the board should do next.

36 monthsSep 2026 — Aug 2029USD · pretax
01 The operating plan
MEMBERS AT MONTH 36——
LOWEST CASH BALANCE——
CASH AT MONTH 36——

Cash through the plan

Current planOriginal base$150k reserve
THE BOARD IMPLICATION

—

—

—

Same equations as the editable workbookBase assumptions · all figures syntheticRead the model conventions ↓

02 / A POSITION, WITH CONDITIONS

Three decisions.
Room to revisit each.

The delivered board memo takes this position on the base case. Your live scenario above can change the cash implications.

  1. Stage the acquisition budget.

    Start at $26,325 a month. Doubling buys 2,629 more members by month 36, but reduces minimum cash by $124k.

    REVISIT WHEN the revised cash trough clears $150k and monthly churn is at or below 3.5% for two months.

  2. Fund a measured retention test.

    Approve $7,500 for 90 days. A 2.6% churn scenario adds $275k to ending cash at the same acquisition budget.

    REVISIT WHEN two cohorts mature. The sensitivity is an opportunity, not proof that the program causes it.

  3. Hire against member demand.

    Stage community success at 3,600 members and a half-time event producer at 5,500, subject to timing gates.

    REVISIT WHEN the forward cash trough approaches $150k. An authorized hire still needs a fresh cash review.

03 / TRACE THE NUMBERS

Messy inputs.
One connected plan.

38 → 36

raw acquisition records
unique channel-month rows

01 / ORIGINAL EXPORTSep 2025
Social / Paid
"$5,200.00"
02 / NORMALIZED INPUT2025-09
Paid Social
5200.00 USD
03 / LINKED MODEL

Acquisition → cohorts → revenue
Delivery → staffing → cash
Scenario → decision

— editable formulas— independent comparisons0 error cellsAll formula caches checked

04 / THE BOARD PACK

Take the work
with you.

The workbook is the source for decisions. The memo explains the evidence, conditions and risks.

01 / XLSXThe operating model18 sheets · formulas, cohorts, cash and sensitivity 02 / PDFThe board memoFive pages · decisions, evidence and revisit triggers 03 / DOCXThe editable memoSame narrative · ready for annotation and revision 04 / PPTXThe board briefingSeven slides · editable text and native charts 05 / ZIPThe reproducible source packRaw inputs, clean records, model and verification
Model conventions & limitations

Revenue differs from cash. Annual memberships earn revenue across 12 months. Advance event receipts are deferred; vendor deposits are prepaid. Opening and closing balances reconcile each month.

People are expected values. Monthly cancellations apply to opening members. Annual plans lapse only at renewal. Acquisition CAC rises with spending; event capacity and hire thresholds create nonlinear costs.

A shortfall stays visible. Negative cash is an unfunded gap. The model assumes no financing, automatic spending cuts or layoffs. Funded months are capped at the 36-month forecast.

A deliberately bounded model. All records and assumptions are invented. Prices and event timing are fixed; taxes, interest, debt, capex, refunds and statistical uncertainty are omitted. Static documents describe the delivered cases.

Hosted byhere.now